Canada's 2026-2028 Levels Plan vs the 2025-2027 plan: what changed
The federal government released its 2026-2028 Immigration Levels Plan in late 2025, and the headline shift is stark: temporary resident arrivals will drop 43% in 2026 to 385,000, while permanent residence admissions hold nearly steady at 380,000. The deeper story is in the composition. Economic immigration will account for 64% of all permanent admissions by 2028, the highest proportion in decades, and the temporary resident cuts hit international students harder than workers.
This article compares the two plans using only canada.ca figures, breaks down what changed and what stayed the same, and explains what the new targets mean for applicants in each category.
The 2026-2028 immigration levels in Canada
The 2026-2028 plan sets three headline targets for new arrivals in 2026:
155,000 international student arrivals — down 49% from the 2025 target
230,000 temporary worker arrivals — down 37% from the 2025 target
380,000 permanent resident admissions — down 4% from the 2025 target
Combined, temporary resident arrivals (students plus workers) drop from roughly 670,000 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026. Permanent residence targets barely move. The 2025-2027 plan called for 395,000 PR admissions in 2025; the 2026-2028 plan calls for 380,000 in 2026.
The federal government framed the shift as "restoring balance and control" to the immigration system. In practice, it's a sharp contraction of temporary pathways—study permits and most work permits—paired with structural stability in the permanent residence streams that feed Express Entry and the Provincial Nominee Program.
The 2026-2028 plan was developed through consultation with provinces, territories, stakeholders, and other federal departments. The temporary resident cuts align with political pressure to reduce housing demand and perceived strain on public services, though IRCC's official language emphasizes labour market alignment and economic prioritization.
The temporary resident cuts: 155,000 students, 230,000 workers
The 43% drop in temporary resident arrivals breaks down unevenly. International student arrivals fall 49% year-over-year, the steepest cut in the plan. Temporary worker arrivals fall 37%, a smaller proportional reduction but still a significant tightening.
The student cap of 155,000 new arrivals in 2026 represents a return to roughly 2019 levels, before the pandemic-era surge. The cap applies only to new study permit approvals for arrivals in 2026. It does not count permit extensions, changes of status from within Canada, or students who entered in prior years and remain enrolled. The practical effect is that Designated Learning Institutions will receive fewer Provincial Attestation Letters (PALs), the mechanism provinces use to allocate their share of the national cap. Institutions with high international enrollment—particularly private career colleges in Ontario and British Columbia—will see the sharpest intake reductions.
The temporary worker target of 230,000 covers both the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (TFFWP) and the International Mobility Program (IMP). The TFFWP serves employers who need to fill immediate labour shortages where qualified Canadians are unavailable. The IMP covers intra-company transfers, CUSMA work permits, post-graduation work permits, and open work permits for spouses of skilled workers or students. The 37% cut suggests tighter Labour Market Impact Assessment (LMIA) approvals under the TFFWP, though the plan does not specify how the reduction will be distributed between the two programs.
One category conspicuously absent from the caps: seasonal agricultural workers who enter and leave Canada within the same calendar year. These workers are excluded from the temporary resident count because they do not remain in Canada long enough to affect housing or service demand in the same way year-round temporary residents do. Asylum claimants are also excluded. The government cannot control these volumes through policy targets because claimants are entitled to have their claims assessed under international law.
Permanent residence targets: steady at 380,000 but economic share rises
Permanent residence admissions drop only 4% from 2025 to 2026—from 395,000 to 380,000—but the internal composition shifts meaningfully. Economic immigration will account for 63% of total PR admissions in 2026, rising to 64% in 2027 and 2028. That's the highest proportion in decades, and it reflects a deliberate pivot toward selecting immigrants who fill specific labour market needs and bring skills that grow the economy.
The economic category includes Federal High-Skilled programs (primarily Express Entry) and the Provincial Nominee Program. Both pathways prioritize candidates with job offers, Canadian work experience, or credentials in occupations facing regional shortages. The 2026-2028 plan does not publish stream-by-stream breakdowns, but the rising economic share implies that Express Entry and PNP allocations will grow as a percentage of total admissions, while family and humanitarian streams hold steady or shrink slightly in absolute terms.
Family sponsorship accounts for 22% of 2026 admissions. This category supports reunification of spouses, partners, dependent children, parents, and grandparents. The proportion is roughly unchanged from the 2025-2027 plan, suggesting that family sponsorship intake caps—particularly the annual parent and grandparent lottery—will remain at current levels.
Refugees, protected persons, and humanitarian cases account for 15% of 2026 admissions. This category includes government-assisted refugees, privately sponsored refugees, protected persons recognized by the Immigration and Refugee Board, and individuals granted protection through IRCC's Pre-Removal Risk Assessment process. The 15% share is consistent with Canada's long-standing commitment to international protection obligations, and the 2026-2028 plan does not signal any reduction in refugee resettlement targets.
The gotcha most applicants miss: the 380,000 permanent residence target is a ceiling, not a floor. IRCC historically undershoots its annual targets by 5-10% due to processing delays, incomplete applications, and medical or security inadmissibility. Applicants should not interpret the 380,000 figure as a guarantee of 380,000 approvals. It's the maximum IRCC aims to process, and actual admissions typically land 10,000-20,000 short.
What stayed the same between the two plans
The structural architecture of Canada's immigration system did not change. The 2026-2028 plan adjusts volumes and proportions but leaves the underlying pathways intact. Applicants still apply through the same programs—Express Entry, PNP, family sponsorship, refugee resettlement—and the eligibility criteria for each stream remain unchanged.
Family sponsorship intake held nearly flat. The 22% allocation in 2026 translates to roughly 83,600 admissions, compared to approximately 87,000 in 2025 under the 2025-2027 plan. The slight reduction reflects the overall 4% drop in total PR admissions, but the proportional share is stable. Spouses, partners, and dependent children continue to receive priority processing, while parents and grandparents remain subject to annual intake caps and the random-selection lottery introduced in 2020.
Refugee and humanitarian admissions also held steady at 15% of total intake. Canada's commitment to resettling refugees referred by the United Nations Refugee Agency, private sponsors, and other referral partners remains a fixed pillar of the levels plan. The 2026-2028 plan does not introduce new humanitarian pathways or sunset existing ones. The same categories (government-assisted refugees, privately sponsored refugees, protected persons) continue to operate under the same rules.
What did change is the temporary resident volume. The 2025-2027 plan allowed roughly 670,000 new temporary resident arrivals in 2025; the 2026-2028 plan cuts that to 385,000 in 2026. The reduction is deliberate, politically motivated, and concentrated in the international student and temporary worker streams. Permanent residence pathways remain structurally stable even as their internal composition tilts more heavily toward economic immigration.
Who counts and who doesn't in the new targets
The 2026-2028 plan counts only new arrivals under specific programs. Several large categories of temporary residents are explicitly excluded from the caps, and understanding what's in and what's out matters for interpreting the real-world impact.
Counted toward the 155,000 student cap: new study permit approvals for international students arriving in 2026. Initial study permits only—not extensions, not changes of status from within Canada.
Counted toward the 230,000 worker cap: new work permit approvals under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program (LMIA-based permits) and new work permits under the International Mobility Program (LMIA-exempt permits, including intra-company transfers, CUSMA permits, post-graduation work permits, and spousal open work permits).
Excluded from temporary resident caps: asylum claimants seeking protection in Canada (the government cannot control these volumes through policy targets), work permit or study permit extensions applied for from within Canada, changes of status from visitor to worker or student processed domestically, seasonal agricultural workers who enter and leave Canada within the same calendar year, and visitors, tourists, business travelers, and family members visiting on temporary resident visas or eTAs.
The exclusions are significant. Asylum claims in 2025 exceeded 140,000, none of which count toward the temporary resident cap. Permit extensions and changes of status add tens of thousands more. The 385,000 figure represents new arrivals only, and the total temporary resident population in Canada at any given time includes everyone who entered in prior years and remains on valid status.
One wrinkle: post-graduation work permits (PGWPs) count toward the 230,000 temporary worker cap even though they are issued to students who are already in Canada. IRCC treats PGWP issuance as a "new arrival" under the International Mobility Program because the permit represents a transition from study to work status. This creates an odd accounting quirk. A student who completes a two-year diploma in 2026 and applies for a PGWP counts toward the worker cap, not the student cap, even though they never left Canada.
What this means for applicants in 2026
The 2026-2028 plan creates a two-tier system: permanent residence pathways remain open and competitive, while temporary resident pathways tighten sharply. What you should do depends on which category you're in.
Express Entry and PNP candidates: the 380,000 permanent residence target holds steady, and economic immigration's rising share (64% by 2028) means Express Entry and PNP allocations are likely to grow. If you're already in the pool with a competitive Comprehensive Ranking System (CRS) score, your odds of receiving an Invitation to Apply (ITA) are roughly the same as in 2025. The caveat: Ontario's OINP pause (detailed in this timeline) removes one major PNP pathway from the mix, which may push more candidates toward federal draws and other provinces.
International students: the 49% cut in new study permit approvals means fewer Provincial Attestation Letters, tighter competition for available spots, and longer processing times as IRCC adjudicates a backlog of applications submitted before the cap took effect. If you're already in Canada on a study permit, the cap does not affect your ability to extend or complete your program. If you're applying for a new permit in 2026, expect heightened scrutiny of your application. IRCC will prioritize candidates attending public institutions, pursuing programs in high-demand fields, and demonstrating strong ties to their home country.
Temporary workers: the 37% reduction in new work permit approvals will hit LMIA-based permits hardest. Employers seeking to hire foreign workers under the Temporary Foreign Worker Program will face longer LMIA processing times and stricter labour market assessments. If you're applying for a work permit under the International Mobility Program (intra-company transfer, CUSMA, spousal open work permit), the cap affects you less directly, but overall processing capacity constraints mean delays are likely across all streams.
Family sponsorship applicants: the 22% allocation translates to roughly 83,600 admissions in 2026, down slightly from 2025 but proportionally stable. Spouses, partners, and dependent children continue to receive priority processing (typically 12-16 months for outland applications). Parents and grandparents remain subject to the annual lottery, and the 2026 intake cap has not been announced as of this article's publication. If you're waiting for the lottery to open, expect the same random-selection process used since 2020.
If you're pursuing permanent residence, the 2026-2028 plan does not close doors. It shifts the distribution of admissions toward economic immigration and holds family and humanitarian streams steady. If you're pursuing temporary residence (study or work), the doors are narrower, the competition is stiffer, and the processing times are longer. Timing matters. The analysis in this guide walks through case-by-case timing decisions for each pathway.
Official current rules are at canada.ca/immigration; this guide is independent reference content.
A small portion of this article — research support, fact-cross-checking, and copy-editing — was assisted by AI tooling. Editorial decisions, source verification, and final sign-off remain with our team. We cite primary sources from canada.ca for every factual claim.
Source: canada.ca · IRCC.com is an independent news site and not affiliated with the Government of Canada.
